Lesson

The Near Miss Effect

What is the Near Miss Effect, and how does it affect us?

The Near Miss Effect

You hit on 16 against and get a 6 in blackjack, busting by 1! You place a bet on Red 3 in roulette, and it lands in Black 2! You lose the big bet on the basketball game when the other team hits a buzzer-beater in double overtime!

It can be super frustrating to come so close to winning, yet end up losing, and this experience has a profound effect on your brain.

In this lesson we’ll explore the difference between natural and engineered near misses, and how that knowledge can help us better control our gambling behavior.

What Is a Near Miss?

Essentially, when you almost win, your brain tricks you into thinking you’re making progress and getting closer to winning.

This can motivate you to continue betting in pursuit of the actual win.

Natural Near Misses

Sometimes, the near miss is natural. Sports is probably the greatest example of this. What makes sports thrilling is the competition.

Losing a bet on the last pitch of the game, kick of the ball, or Hail Mary touchdown can be frustrating.

What’s important to remember is that even though you almost won that bet, it has no effect on your next bet.

The game resets, and there is no correlation between the outcomes of different events.

Engineered Near Misses

However, there’s a far more dangerous and insidious form of near misses. We’re talking about engineered near misses.

The design of slot games, which allows the manipulation of the game parameters, can be engineered to result in more frequent outcomes looking like near misses and interpreted by players as chance near misses.

These games are literally engineered to show frequent outcomes that look like near misses – manipulating players into thinking they almost won.

If you remember from our lesson on Random Number Generators (RTGs), as soon as you press the button (or pull the handle) on an electronic slot machine, there is nothing mechanical going on.

Instead, you are assigned a random number, which is then assigned an outcome.

The Near MIss Effect in Action

Let’s say you bet $1 in an electronic slot machine. As soon as you press that button, you are assigned the number 12345.

That number, 12345, is correlated to an outcome of -$0.75, meaning the slot machine is going to return you a “win” of $0.25.

At that point, the game is over. You’ve made your bet, and the machine has decided the outcome.

All of the whirling, the sounds, the lights, etc. is just the machine’s smoke and mirrors communicating the outcome to you.

There are lots of ways to potentially communicate the outcome to the player. This is where Engineered Near Misses come in.

If that outcome is communicated to the player by 3 consecutive low-paying symbols, that’s not a very exciting experience.

However, if that outcome is communicated as matching 2 BONUS symbols on the first 2 reels, and then just missing the 3rd BONUS symbol on the last reel…

The outcome will be exactly the same, but the experience feels totally different.

Here’s the catch.

The repeated exposure to near misses can intensify the desire to continue gambling, despite potential losses or negative consequences.

Vulnerability to Addiction and Near Misses

Over time, this can lead to unhealthy gambling habits and even addiction. The false sense of almost winning capitalizes on the human brain's response to uncertainty and anticipation. When players experience a near miss, their brains interpret it as a sign that they were close to winning, leading to a surge of dopamine, the neurotransmitter associated with pleasure and reward.

This dopamine release creates a powerful reinforcement loop, encouraging players to chase the elusive win, despite the objective odds being against them. Moreover, slot machines are specifically designed to deliver these near misses at a carefully calibrated frequency, further intensifying the psychological allure.

Combined with the rapid pace of play and sensory stimulation provided by flashing lights, engaging sounds, and vibrant graphics, the overall experience becomes highly immersive and compelling.

For individuals vulnerable to addiction, these factors can hijack their brain's reward system, making it incredibly challenging to resist the urge to continue gambling, even in the face of mounting losses and adverse consequences.

Let's Reflect

Have you ever found yourself chasing a win after experiencing a near miss? If so, what was going through your mind at that moment?

Consider how the engineered near miss effect may influence your overall gambling behavior. What steps can you take to minimize its impact on your decisions while playing slot machines?

Closing Thought

So the next time you see someone complaining that they “almost hit” the jackpot in the slot machine, you’ll know that in fact, they didn’t. They simply don’t understand how that slot machine works.